Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-28 21.947373 23.878301 25.968673 28.411523 31.202935 34.311120 38.059035
2025-10-05 18.990655 21.610279 24.642897 28.458136 33.195482 38.975529 46.708744
2025-10-12 16.919516 19.947392 23.646924 28.598089 35.210863 43.990374 57.000026
2025-10-19 15.472921 18.788406 23.028943 29.020773 37.574823 49.889672 70.139245
2025-10-26 14.149741 17.589644 22.154627 28.902415 39.104099 54.900171 83.584078
2025-11-02 13.031323 16.515793 21.284446 28.610434 40.260540 59.545098 98.103710
2025-11-09 12.178682 15.703444 20.662717 28.556636 41.724470 64.997657 116.422738
2025-11-16 11.411790 14.930420 19.999404 28.320674 42.805857 70.005220 136.271489
2025-11-23 10.743806 14.236297 19.373319 28.042345 43.733656 74.935279 158.751937
2025-11-30 10.164098 13.621730 18.803373 27.770755 44.603381 79.969614 184.886403
2025-12-07 9.684164 13.117657 18.354925 27.640480 45.702681 85.823546 218.184127
2025-12-14 9.217756 12.599807 17.837388 27.320589 46.358039 90.843775 253.464169
2025-12-21 9.053155 12.542179 18.068790 28.398251 50.170454 105.354491 346.380093
2025-12-28 8.662935 12.103537 17.632029 28.178455 51.132901 112.637770 419.410452
2026-01-04 8.343623 11.757872 17.324710 28.170779 52.587221 122.075454 527.252387
2026-01-11 8.106263 11.529150 17.198796 28.503155 54.927232 135.559682 709.468075
2026-01-18 7.811747 11.188769 16.850608 28.343738 56.021467 145.447574 908.829585
2026-01-25 7.518480 10.834280 16.452090 28.036094 56.680417 154.199069 1154.925229
2026-02-01 7.281642 10.561626 16.181985 27.970843 57.986896 166.455632 1575.279761
2026-02-08 7.038384 10.265595 15.849242 27.734816 58.781924 177.185905 2137.216481
2026-02-15 6.806800 9.978343 15.514597 27.460980 59.425653 187.840464 2970.257204
2026-02-22 6.591450 9.709133 15.197383 27.195450 60.053975 199.085456 4321.034930
2026-03-01 6.406682 9.484607 14.951117 27.067949 61.092134 213.569231 7105.045466